To become President, a candidate needs to win 270 out of 538 electoral votes. As per polling averages calculated by ABC News’ analytical website Fivethirtyeight, if you exclude the swing states, Harris and Trump could be on track to win around 220 electoral votes each. To reach the majority mark, they will have to garner votes from swing states.
The seven states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin control 93 electoral college votes. Pennsylvania has the highest at 19, followed by Georgia and North Carolina with 16 each, and Michigan with 15. As per polls, neither candidate has a decisive lead in any of the states.
However, Kamala Harris seems to be doing better than Joe Biden, who was trailing Trump by 5% in polls earlier this year. As per Fivethirtyeight, Trump has a small lead in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina, while Harris has a slight edge in Wisconsin and Michigan. Remember, the polls have a margin of error, so the numbers could be higher or lower.
Now, let’s take a look at how the swing states voted in the previous elections:
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania, the fifth most populous American state, has seen aggressive campaigning by both candidates. Trump clinched the state in 2016, but Biden by a slim margin here in 2020. Remember, the photo of Trump walking out of a Pennsylvania rally with blood dripping from his ear after a failed assassination attempt became an iconic moment this election season. Trump believes that if he wins in Pennsylvania, he will win “the whole thing”, while Harris has been doing her best to rally support. She even visited a Black church and a barbershop.
Georgia
From 1992 to 2016, Georgia voted for the Republican candidate but in 2020, it was Biden who emerged the winner. He clinched the state with a margin of over 11,700 votes. Harris and former President Barack Obama shared the stage for the first time at a star-studded rally in Georgia’s Altanta, appealing to Black voters. Meanwhile, Trump, in his last-minute pitch in the state, declared that he is “the opposite of a Nazi”.
Michigan
Michigan was in Trump’s kitty in 2016, but went to Biden just four years later. In primaries earlier this year, many Michigan Democrats did not back Biden because of his support for Israel’s war in Gaza. Harris, who replaced Biden as the Democratic candidate, was heckled by an anti-war protester at a recent rally. She responded by saying that “we must end the war”.
Nevada
Since 2008, Nevada has favoured Democrats in every election with candidates winning by a slim margin. The state has lagged in terms of economic recovery following the pandemic. Both Harris and Trump have promised to turn things around in the state, which has six electoral votes.
North Carolina
North Carolina, a state recently ravaged by Hurricane Helene, had last voted for a Democratic president in 2008. Trump clinched the state in 2020 by just 75,000 votes. He has made at least two appearances in the state this week and accused the Biden administration of an inadequate hurricane response.
Wisconsin
From 1992 to 2012, Wisconsin had picked a Democratic candidate in every election. However, the state stood by Trump during his first presidential run, while Biden won in 2020. Reports suggest that Wisconsin gave Biden his 270th electoral vote.
Arizona
Trump lost in Arizona in 2020 by less than 11,000 votes, and for the first time since 1996, a Democrat made a mark on the state. This time, Harris is hoping the abortion rights push will work in her favour, while Trump is hoping voters will back him due to his anti-immigration measures.
Polls had underestimated support for Trump in 2016 and 2020. So, for now, we’ll have to stay put and see who emerges the victor — Donald Trump or Kamala Harris.
Also read: US Presidential Election 2024 | Trump vs Harris: How the outcome will affect global ties