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Jharkhand Election | These five key factors could shape BJP’s prospects in the state

As Jharkhand approaches the 2024 assembly elections, the BJP faces a complex landscape of challenges and opportunities that could shape its political future in the state. Anti-incumbency looms large, with Jharkhand’s voters historically shifting between parties each election. The BJP will seek to leverage dissatisfaction with the current Jharkhand Mukti Morcha-led government by emphasising perceived shortcomings in governance while articulating a clear, forward-looking vision for the state’s development.

The return of former Chief Minister Babulal Marandi to the BJP is likely to strengthen its tribal vote base. As an influential tribal leader, Marandi could sway support away from the JMM, especially by highlighting allegations of corruption within the Soren administration. The defection of Champai Soren from the JMM to the BJP adds further momentum, with promises of job creation and reform aimed at capturing the interest of younger, disenchanted voters. The economic promises, youth employment, anti-incumbency, and Bangladeshi infiltration narratives can also help the BJP this time. 

Breaking tribal vote consolidation

As Jharkhand’s 2024 Assembly elections approach, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is laser-focused on breaking the tribal vote consolidation that has historically favored the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM). This strategy is pivotal for the BJP’s prospects in the state, where tribal votes play a crucial role in determining electoral outcomes. The return of Babulal Marandi, a seasoned politician and former Chief Minister, to the BJP fold has provided a significant boost to the party’s campaign.

Marandi’s influence among the tribal communities is expected to sway a considerable portion of the electorate in favor of the BJP. Additionally, the recent defection of Champai Soren, another prominent tribal leader, from the JMM to the BJP has further strengthened the party’s position. These developments have bolstered the BJP’s efforts to penetrate the tribal vote bank, which has been a stronghold of the JMM.

However, the BJP faces a formidable challenge in the form of a sympathy wave towards JMM chief and current Chief Minister Hemant Soren. Hemant Soren’s arrest earlier this year on corruption charges has evoked a strong emotional response from the tribal community. Many view his arrest as politically motivated, and this perception has generated a groundswell of support for him and his party. The JMM is leveraging this sympathy factor to consolidate its tribal vote base further, portraying Hemant Soren as a victim of political vendetta.

In this high-stakes political battle, the BJP’s ability to break the tribal vote consolidation will be crucial. The party’s success hinges on its capacity to counter the sympathy wave for Hemant Soren and effectively communicate its development agenda to the tribal electorate. As the election date draws nearer, the dynamics of tribal politics in Jharkhand will undoubtedly play a decisive role in shaping the state’s political future.

Bangladeshi infiltration narrative

As the state prepares for the elections, the issue of Bangladeshi and Rohingya infiltration has taken center stage in the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) campaign. Senior BJP leaders, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah, have highlighted illegal immigration as a pressing concern, emphasising its impact on the tribal regions of Santhal Parganas and Kolhan

The BJP’s narrative underscores how an alleged influx of Bangladeshi and Rohingya immigrants has spurred demographic shifts, leading to a reduction in the tribal population. This theme has resonated strongly in party rallies and speeches, where leaders accuse the ruling Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) of encouraging this influx to expand its vote bank. The BJP claims that these immigrants are influencing local governance structures and posing threats to the cultural and social fabric of the state, aiming to heighten security concerns among residents. The opposition yet does not have a strong defense to this.

This message appeals to voters worried about demographic changes and cultural preservation. By centering its campaign on this narrative, the BJP seeks to strengthen support among tribal communities and other groups wary of immigration. As the election nears, the theme of infiltration will likely remain pivotal to the BJP’s strategy, aiming to solidify its base in Jharkhand.

Economic promises

BJP is making a concerted effort to woo voters with a series of economic promises. The party’s manifesto includes several initiatives aimed at addressing the needs of economically disadvantaged sections of society, which could play a crucial role in shaping voter preferences.

One of the key initiatives is the ‘Gogo Didi Yojana,’ which aims to provide financial assistance of ₹2,100 per month to eligible women. This scheme is designed to empower women and improve their financial independence, making it an attractive proposition for female voters. Additionally, the ‘Laxmi Johar Yojana’ promises affordable LPG gas cylinders at ₹500, with two free cylinders provided annually during festive seasons. This initiative is expected to alleviate the financial burden on households, particularly those from lower-income groups.

The BJP’s manifesto also includes promises to create five lakh jobs for the youth and provide financial assistance of ₹2,000 per month to undergraduate and postgraduate students for up to two years. These measures are aimed at addressing the issue of youth unemployment and supporting students in their pursuit of higher education.

By focusing on these economic promises, the BJP hopes to attract support from various sections of society, particularly women, youth, and economically disadvantaged groups. As the election date draws nearer, the effectiveness of these promises in garnering voter support will be closely watched.

Youth employment

Addressing youth unemployment is a cornerstone of the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) campaign strategy for the 2024 Jharkhand Assembly elections. Recognizing the critical role of the younger demographic in shaping the state’s future, the BJP has pledged to create substantial self-employment opportunities and provide unemployment allowances to graduates and postgraduates.

The party’s manifesto outlines ambitious plans to generate five lakh self-employment opportunities over the next five years. This initiative aims to empower the youth by fostering entrepreneurship and reducing dependency on traditional employment avenues. Additionally, the BJP has promised to fill 2.87 lakh vacant government positions, with the recruitment process set to commence immediately upon assuming power. This move is expected to provide much-needed job security to the state’s youth.

To further support young job seekers, the BJP has introduced the ‘Yuva Sathi’ scheme, which offers a monthly allowance of ₹2,000 to undergraduate and postgraduate students for up to two years. This financial assistance is intended to help students prepare for competitive examinations and enhance their employability.

By focusing on youth employment, the BJP aims to garner support from the younger demographic, which is increasingly frustrated with the lack of job opportunities.

Anti-incumbancy factor

The anti-incumbency sentiments against the ruling Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM)-Congress alliance may give BJP a significant advantage. The JMM-Congress coalition, in power since 2019, faces mounting criticism for its handling of issues such as unemployment, corruption, and sluggish development. The BJP is tapping into this public discontent by spotlighting the perceived failures of the current administration. The party’s campaign zeroes in on unfulfilled promises and alleged mismanagement by the JMM-Congress alliance, positioning itself as a refreshing alternative for voters eager for change. The recent arrest of Chief Minister Hemant Soren on corruption charges has only amplified these criticisms, with many interpreting it as further evidence of government inefficiency and lack of accountability.

With this narrative, the BJP aims to leverage the anti-incumbency wave to consolidate its support base and appeal to voters disillusioned with the JMM-Congress leadership. As the election approaches, the BJP’s strategic emphasis on change and accountability could significantly sway Jharkhand’s political landscape in its favor.

— The author, Prof. Sayantan Ghosh (@sayantan_gh), is a political observer and columnist who teaches journalism at St. Xavier’s College,  Kolkata. The views expressed are personal.

Read his previous articles here 

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