Trump’s team, however, counters this narrative by claiming that a victory for him would lead to lower prices and stronger economic growth. As a billionaire with a background in real estate, Trump advocates for higher tariffs to encourage domestic manufacturing and tax cuts for the wealthy and corporations, asserting that these policies will stimulate investment.
The differing perspectives of the two candidates illustrate a fundamental divide on economic governance: Harris’s team argues that upholding the rule of law fosters the stability necessary for markets and workers to thrive, while Trump emphasises tariff increases and tax reductions as keys to economic expansion.
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Gene Sperling, who has advised three Democratic presidents on economic policy and is currently assisting the Harris campaign, presents what he calls a “common sense” argument to financial leaders regarding the dangers of a second Trump term. “A president who targets people, CEOs, companies, journalists, and opposition could have a devastating impact on the investment confidence that has been robust for the past four years and has been part of America’s strength since its founding,” Sperling stated.
In contrast, Trump supporter John Paulson, a billionaire hedge fund investor who envisions himself as a possible treasury secretary, rejects Harris’s criticisms, claiming the world was more stable under Trump and inflation was lower during his administration. “It’s completely false,” he said, dismissing Sperling’s concerns about the rule of law. “When people make these claims, they’re totally spurious. They’re not grounded in reality. Trump is a brilliant businessman. He wants to bring down wasteful spending and encourage growth.”
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Trump has criticised Harris’s economic management as “stupid,” predicting a stock market crash if he loses the election, despite the S&P 500 increasing roughly 50% during President Joe Biden’s tenure. “We will give our companies the lowest taxes, the lowest energy costs, the lowest regulatory burdens, and free access to the best and biggest market on the planet,” he declared at a rally in Allentown, Pennsylvania. “The problem is, if we had more of these idiots running our country, you won’t have a big and best market anymore because we’re a nation in decline.”
The Harris campaign is linking the January 6, 2021 insurrection at the U.S. Capitol with Trump’s history of using his platform to attack the Federal Reserve and various companies, including Amazon and John Deere. They argue that companies are less likely to make long-term investments if democratic principles are under threat and election outcomes are contested.
Corporate leaders have also been engaging with prominent figures such as Robert Rubin, former treasury secretary; Kenneth Chenault, former CEO of American Express; and Brian Deese, former director of the National Economic Council under Biden. According to a source familiar with these discussions, the Harris campaign representatives are not facing significant resistance on this topic. Many executives, who typically remain apolitical, have privately expressed their concerns about a Trump presidency, with the source requesting anonymity to discuss these private conversations.
Vanessa Williamson, a senior fellow in governance at the Brookings Institution, noted that the Harris campaign may have understated the risks involved. “By and large, Americans have been able to take the basic rule of law for granted,” Williamson observed. “The kind of rampant cronyism and fraud that is endemic in some other countries has really been unimaginable here — and that’s a great thing. But it also makes it difficult for people to conceive of just how important government is for the functioning of markets.”
Both campaigns are vying for support from the business community. Trump has garnered endorsements from billionaire Elon Musk, while Harris is backed by figures like Microsoft founder Bill Gates and entrepreneur Mark Cuban.
Much of the debate has centered on policy differences, with Trump arguing that higher corporate tax rates proposed by Harris would deter investment. Conversely, Harris’s team has criticised Trump’s plans to eliminate Biden-era incentives for building advanced manufacturing facilities as detrimental to job creation.
The significance of democratic values gained traction in October when three economists—Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson, and James Robinson—were awarded the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences for demonstrating that social institutions and the rule of law are crucial for economic growth. Acemoglu was among 23 Nobel-winning economists who signed a letter warning that Trump’s economic policies would “lead to higher prices, larger deficits, and greater inequality,” asserting that “the rule of law and economic and political certainty” are vital for success, which Trump threatens.
Harris, a former attorney general of California, has long been interested in the relationship between democracy and economic growth. Two individuals working in the White House recalled that in 2022, Harris requested economic research to support her belief that the erosion of democratic standards could harm economic performance.
Similarly, during Biden’s candidacy, White House Chief of Staff Jeff Zients presented to CEOs in the Business Roundtable, arguing that a Trump presidency would generate uncertainty detrimental to growth, contrasting with Trump’s proposals for additional tax cuts.
Neither the Business Roundtable nor the U.S. Chamber of Commerce has endorsed candidates in the upcoming presidential election. The Business Roundtable prioritises maintaining the corporate tax rate at 21%, while Trump promises further cuts for manufacturers. Harris advocates raising it to 28%, still lower than the 35% rate in effect until 2017.
The Chamber has expressed its readiness to work with whichever administration is in power. Business Roundtable CEO Josh Bolten stated this month that the organisation supports the peaceful transfer of power. Thus far, Trump has not committed to this principle, having falsely claimed that his 2020 loss was due to a rigged election, a narrative that fueled the 2021 insurrection. “It can take time to finalise election results, and we urge all Americans to respect the processes set out in federal and state laws for electoral determinations and an orderly transition,” Bolten remarked.
