Analysts agree that the path to the White House could hinge on the state’s outcome, as over 83 million Americans have already cast early ballots, a significant portion from key swing states.
To discuss the key trends of the election, CNBC-TV18 spoke to Patrick Svitek, Politics Reporter at Washington Post; Meera Shankar, Ex-Indian Envoy to US; and Sean Trende, Senior Election Analyst at RealClearPolitics.
Below are the excerpts of the discussion.
Q: Do you feel the demographics right now, the trends emerging out of the United States, are they in favour of Kamala Harris, or do you think that somewhere there is an underlying current in favour of Donald Trump?
Shankar: It’s very difficult to say, because the race is so tight that it could go either way. I think it’s too close to call, and a lot hinges on the outcome of the seven swing states, particularly Pennsylvania, which is in a dead heat. It has 19 Electoral College votes, and since it’s tied, it could flip either way.
I think gender clearly is an issue in this election, because it’s the first election since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v Wade, which had given the right of abortion to women, and many states have since reversed abortion rights or restricted them, and therefore this is panning out to be an issue of key concern amongst women. So there is a gender divide in the supporters of the two candidates.
Minorities have traditionally voted with the Democratic Party. But again, surprisingly, there seems to be a little bit of a gender divide, let’s say even amongst minority voters. Again, education becomes a marker, because university educated voters are more likely to vote Democratic non-university educated voters are more likely to vote with Trump, particularly white non-university educated voters. But at the moment, as I said, race is in a dead heat, I don’t think there’s anything definitive which would allow you to say x is going to win or y is going to win.
Q: The race is extremely close. As we’re in the final lap, as the early voting has begun, what state are you actually looking out for?
Trende: I’ve been doing this for 20 years and this is the closest election I have ever had to evaluate. I think the key to this election is Pennsylvania. It’s the largest of the swing states, and it’s also been the closest in the polling averages. I think whoever wins Pennsylvania has a very, very good chance of becoming the next President of the United States.
Q: There are many people analysing Trump’s final speeches, and they say that he’s possibly hinting at some sort of defeat. Is that something that you are reading in the speeches of Donald Trump, is that the sense that one gets after speaking to the Republican camp?
Svitek: I think he’s made some statements that acknowledge the obvious reality that this is a very close race, and it could go either way. And one of those scenarios could be defeat. I don’t know if I’m personally reading too much into that, in terms of the outcome he’s expecting, but there certainly have been statements by him or people affiliated with his campaign acknowledging just how tight this race is, and I think both candidates are just absolutely exhausted. I mean, this has been a more tumultuous presidential race than is typical for the United States, just given the historic or near historic events that we’ve seen, whether it’s the assassination attempt against Trump, the changeover in the Democratic nominee late this summer, and so I think both sides are just absolutely exhausted as we reach the finish line.
Q: If I were to ask you right now, what’s the kind of impact this election will have on the two wars that we see right now – the Ukraine, Russia war, and the Middle East war? Where do you think the next President will have his or her biggest challenges?
Shankar: As far as Kamala Harris is concerned, she has said she will continue to support Ukraine and help Ukraine to attain victory in the war with Russia.
President Trump did not answer when asked whether he would support Ukrainian victory, but said he would work to end the war. So his priorities have been different, and you could expect efforts towards perhaps cutting back on aid to Ukraine and also commencing some negotiations towards ending the conflict.
Of course, much will depend on the composition of the House and the Senate in terms of how much of a free hand he has in this, and it’s also possible that the Democrats after the election may move after a period of time to look at possibilities of how this war could end because it’s quite clear it’s not ending on the battlefield. Ukrainian lives are being lost, and a lot of aid is going from Western countries to support Ukraine. So at some stage, I presume that there will have to be a willingness to see how this conflict could perhaps be halted on both sides, though I think the Democrats will not do it initially. They might come to it after a period of time, because they have vowed to continue their existing policies. Trump has definitely said he will seek to end the war, so we can expect a shift as far as the US, policies towards Ukraine are concerned.
Watch the video for more.
