This is primarily because Trump’s tariff stance on China could encourage a shift in manufacturing from China to India, a trend seen under both Trump and Biden.
However, Mowat warned that Trump’s tariff policies could also impact imports from India and raise questions about US companies employing many IT workers in India, which could be a concern for the Indian IT sector.
The outcome of the closely contested US Presidential Elections 2024 is expected to be announced in a few hours. Polls show a tight race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, suggesting a potential historic decision, as the US could elect its first female President or see former President Trump return to office.
Several Wall Street strategists predicted that a clear decision would likely lead to a year-end stock rally, building on the S&P 500 Index’s impressive 21% gain this year.
Ed Yardeni, President of Yardeni Research, and Arvind Sanger, Managing Partner at Geosphere Capital Management also shared their views on how the election might affect markets, particularly in India.
Sanger believes the betting markets are leaning toward a Trump victory, estimating a 75% chance of his success.
He agrees with Mowat that if Trump wins, India could benefit, as it might lead to increased tariffs on Chinese imports.
Also Read: US Presidential Election Results: Wall Street analysts bet on rally to continue post outcome
Yardeni expects the strong US economy, along with recent rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, might have a negative effect on emerging markets.
Both experts agreed that the rise in bond yields, reaching 4.4% compared to 3.65% on September 16 for the 10-year bond, could complicate the Fed’s plans for further rate cuts.
Drew Pettit, Director-US Equity Strategy/ETF Analysis and Strategy Research at Citi says a Trump victory, and potentially the changes around policies that can affect different sectors and how they perform, could help us finally break away from a very concentrated flow pattern.
“This likely could help more sectors and active product flows in the United States. But even in the last couple of months, we have started to see a comeback in US investors, at least, starting to buy more international exposures as they look for more opportunities,” he said.
Also Read: Rupee hits record low as US dollar surges on Trump’s early lead in US election results
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