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HDFC Bank risk-reward is favourable as per UBS, but HSBC cuts target post Q3

No analyst on the street that has coverage on India’s largest private lender HDFC Bank Ltd.,has a “sell” rating on the stock post its December quarter results.

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Out of the 48 analysts that have coverage on the stock, 41 have a “buy” rating, while the rest say “hold.”

HDFC Bank reported its December quarter results during market hours on Wednesday, January 22, where net profit and Net Interest Income for the lender were in-line with expectations, while asset quality saw a marginal deterioration compared to the previous quarter.

Slippages for the lender also increased by ₹1,000 crore compared to the September period.

In a post-earnings call with analysts, HDFC Bank MD & CEO Sashidhar Jagdishan said that the macro environment remains very challenging amidst tight liquidity conditions, signs of moderating urban demand and tepid private capex programs.

He also said that there are some signs of rural demand picking up, along with a rise in government spending.

Brokerage firm UBS maintained its “buy” rating on HDFC Bank with a price target of ₹2,100.

The brokerage said that while the management is confident of its asset quality prospects, growth will have to wait.

However, at 1.9 times financial year 2026 price-to-book, HDFC Bank’s risk-reward is favourable, which is at a 15% discount to valuations of ICICI Bank.

HSBC has cut its price target on HDFC Bank to ₹1,980 from ₹2,130 earlier, although it has also maintained its “buy” recommendation on the lender.

The brokerage has also cut its financial year 2026 – 2027 Earnings Per Share (EPS) estimates for HDFC Bank by 4% to 5%, to reflect the lower loan growth and pressure in Net Interest Margins. It added that an inflection in loan growth is key for HDFC Bank.

Macquarie has an “outperform” rating on HDFC Bank and its price target of ₹2,300 is among the highest on the street for the stock.

The management expects NIMs to improve once macros get better with better liquidity, a cut in repo rate as well as the CRR, along with better CASA, Macquarie wrote in its note.

Bernstein too has a price target of ₹2,300 on HDFC Bank along with an “outperform” recommendation.

It called the results “good” along with healthy asset quality and “decent” growth in HDFC Bank’s Net Interest Income.

“A year-on-year growth of 12% in profit before tax (PBT) leaves us more confident of a return to mid-teens EPS growth trajectory in the quarters ahead,” the brokerage wrote in its note.

CLSA though, has a “hold” rating on the stock with a price target of ₹1,875.

It believes that since the bank will pick-up loan growth, it expects the Loan-Deposit Ratio (LDR) to reach 90% only in financial year 2027. It called the sequential contraction in NIMs “par for the course” and the rise in gross slippages as “decent” in this environment.

Shares of HDFC Bank recovered from the lows post the results announcement and ended 1.8% higher on Wednesday, emerging as a significant contributor to the Nifty 50 index. In response to the results, the US-listed shares of the lender (ADRs) also ended 3% higher overnight.

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