The Export-Import Bank of India (India Exim Bank) has projected that the country’s total merchandise exports will reach US$ 111.7 billion in the second quarter (July-September) of FY25, reflecting a YoY growth of 4.2%. Non-oil exports are anticipated to amount to US$ 89.8 billion, marking a YoY growth of 6.26%. The quarterly report highlights that India’s economy continues to show strong activity, driven by sustained momentum in the manufacturing and services sectors. Expected global monetary easing and improving demand from trading partners are likely to bolster export performance. However, risks such as geopolitical tensions, the crisis in West Asia, global supply chain disruptions, and geo-economic fragmentation could impact these projections.
India’s merchandise and non-oil export sectors have demonstrated positive growth for 3 consecutive quarters, a trend expected to persist into the second quarter of FY25. These forecasts are part of India Exim Bank’s quarterly reports, released in the first fortnight of May, August, November, and February. The projections are based on the bank’s proprietary Export Leading Index (ELI) model, a leading indicator for tracking and forecasting movements in India’s exports. The ELI model is regularly reviewed and validated by a technical committee of domain experts, including Department of Economic and Policy Research, Reserve Bank of India, Adviser, Dr. Sunil Kumar; Jadavpur University Professor Mr. Saikat Sinha Roy; Madras School of Economics Professor Mr. NR Bhanumurthy; and Centre for Development Studies Professor Mr. C Veeramani. The next forecast, covering the third quarter of FY25 (October-December 2024), is scheduled for release in the first fortnight of November 2024.
Disclaimer: This information has been collected through secondary research and IBEF is not responsible for any errors in the same.
